Nearly all US solar module prices have hit a standstill at $0.28 per watt since September 2025, marking a rare period of stability in the typically volatile renewable energy market. After months of fluctuations, median prices have settled at this baseline through November, though industry insiders call the stability “fragile” at best. The looming Section 232 compliance decision hangs over the market like a storm cloud. Not exactly reassuring.
The journey to this pricing plateau has been anything but straightforward. Prices actually bottomed out at $0.25 per watt between November 2024 and February 2025, following summer 2024 highs. Then came the rush. Developers scrambled to beat the September 2, 2025 ITC qualification deadline, driving a 3.7% price jump between June and August. A brief 4% price increase occurred between December 2024 and January 2025 due to tariff policy adjustments. This price stagnation comes despite a dramatic 24% drop in nationwide installation volumes compared to the same period last year. Panic buying. Classic solar industry.
Solar prices took the scenic route to $0.28/W—bottoming out then spiking amid the usual pre-deadline scramble.
Technology differentiation has practically vanished in this pricing freeze. TOPCon modules, once commanding a premium, now sit at the same $0.28/W as everything else. Only HJT modules maintain their expensive reputation at $0.39/W, though even those prices dropped 2.9% recently. Supply’s limited anyway, so good luck finding them.
Meanwhile, US-made cells remain stubbornly expensive at $0.45/W since September. The solar industry continues to wrestle with renewable intermittency challenges that complicate grid integration and reliability. The price gap between domestic and imported components is laughable. Imported modules cost just $0.26/W—a difference that speaks volumes about manufacturing economics.
Trump-era tariff policies triggered a 4% price hike in late 2024, and the maze of OBBBA and FEOC rules shortened tax incentive windows. Developers hedged against uncertainty by stockpiling before deadlines. Who can blame them?
Looking ahead, analysts project prices could eventually slide to $0.23/W by 2030 if domestic manufacturing scales as planned. The supplier base should expand considerably, with US module suppliers increasing from 9 to 13 and cell suppliers from 8 to 11 by 2028. For now, though, $0.28/W is the magic number. Don’t expect movement anytime soon.
References
- https://mercomindia.com/us-solar-module-prices-dropped-to-0-25-w-between-november-and-february-2025
- https://news.sunhub.com/us-solar-market-outlook-2025-analysis
- https://www.pv-tech.org/us-solar-module-prices-stabilise-us-0-28-w-november/
- https://www.pv-tech.org/us-solar-module-prices-up-following-safe-harbour-deadline-rush/
- https://taiyangnews.info/business/us-dg-solar-module-prices-jump-amid-safe-harbor-rush
- https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/93310.pdf
- https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/10/08/policy-deadline-rush-pushes-u-s-solar-module-pricing-up-in-q3/
- https://solarbuildermag.com/news/qa-solar-module-prices-feoc-risk-and-the-next-round-of-trade-turbulence-with-anza-ceo-mike-hall/
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/10/09/us-solar-module-prices-rise-in-q3-amid-policy-driven-demand/
- https://www.solarbeglobal.com/tax-credit-deadlines-and-trade-restrictions-drive-up-u-s-solar-module-prices-in-q3/
