Texas Dodges Summer Blackout Crisis: Solar And Batteries Slash Risk By 94%

While Texas has long been plagued by summer blackout concerns, ERCOT’s latest forecast brings unexpected relief. The state’s grid operator now projects summer 2025 blackout risk at less than 1% — a dramatic 94% drop from the nerve-wracking 16% risk predicted for summer 2024. Not bad for a state that’s been sweating bullets every summer.

The biggest improvements come during those critical evening hours around 9 p.m. when everyone cranks their AC. Thank the sun and some big batteries for that. Utility-scale solar and battery storage installations have flooded the grid with flexible power, exactly where it was needed most. These technologies have become Texas’ unlikely heroes during scorching 100-degree days.

Solar farms and batteries rescue Texas evenings when AC demand peaks, providing crucial flexibility during triple-digit heat

It’s about time something worked. Texas has ranked as the second most at-risk state for power outages during recent summers. The turnaround is especially remarkable considering the state’s explosive growth. The addition of over 9,600 megawatts of new capacity since last summer has significantly bolstered grid reliability. Population booms, manufacturing expansions, and data centers popping up like weeds — all gobbling electricity.

ERCOT’s projections for summer 2025 are still intimidating: peak demand hitting 82,243 MW in June and soaring to 84,103 MW in July. And Mother Nature isn’t helping. Next summer is expected to be among the ten hottest on record. Great.

Despite the good news, planning reserve margins are actually lower than last year. State officials aren’t resting easy. They’re fast-tracking transmission upgrades and hardening substations. Smart move, since the risk of negative reserve margins looms large starting in 2026 if trends continue.

Regulatory changes have focused on better integrating those solar farms and battery banks. Long-term contracts are keeping electricity rates relatively stable for consumers, despite the infrastructure sprint. This success aligns with the broader trend of renewable power sources generating 30% of global electricity by 2023. The state has experienced a staggering 7,164 summertime outages between 2019 and 2023, making reliability improvements critical.

Bottom line: Texas has bought itself some breathing room. But with demand growth outpacing capacity additions long-term, this summer relief might just be the eye of the hurricane. The second most at-risk state for blackouts isn’t exactly a trophy worth keeping.