Tesla’s U.S. Sales Projected To Plummet 9% In 2025 As Rivals Gain Ground

While the broader automotive market continues to show signs of growth, Tesla is facing a significant downturn in the United States. According to a new Cox Automotive forecast, Tesla’s U.S. sales are expected to plunge 8.9% in 2025, dropping from 633,762 units in 2024 to just 577,097 vehicles. That’s not exactly the trajectory shareholders were hoping for.

The numbers paint a grim picture. Tesla’s market share is projected to slip from 4.0% to 3.5% while competitors are stepping on the gas. Toyota’s cruising toward 8.4% growth. GM? They’re looking at a solid 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, the overall U.S. auto market is forecast to grow by 1.8%. Tesla’s missing the party completely.

Tesla’s driving off a cliff while everyone else floors it toward growth.

This decline isn’t a new trend. Tesla already saw a 3% sales drop from 2023 to 2024, and if the 2025 forecast holds true, that’ll represent a 13% nosedive from 2023 levels. Ouch.

The year-to-date figures through August 2025 show Tesla sold 337,079 vehicles—a whopping 24% below the same period in 2024.

The company did manage to set a new monthly record in August 2025 with 55,500 units, likely thanks to buyers rushing to take advantage of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit before it expired on September 30. Nothing motivates car buyers like government money disappearing.

Market challenges aren’t helping. California, which accounts for 20-30% of Tesla’s annual U.S. volume, is threatening a one-month sales suspension due to a DMV ruling.

And inventory for the popular Model Y was running low in late August. The Model Y’s newly increased leasing rates of $399 per month, up from the previous $349, could further dampen consumer interest. Cox’s analysis is particularly concerning because the company bases its forecasts on dealership sales data, providing a reliable indicator of market trends.

Tesla’s global deliveries for Q3 2025 reached 497,099 vehicles, with Model 3/Y accounting for the vast majority.

But the U.S. numbers tell a different story. With the Model Y L three-row version delayed until late 2026 and earnings expected to disappoint when reported in January 2026, Tesla’s immediate future in America looks decidedly downhill.