OPEC Output Crashes To 2020 Lows As War-Driven Export Cuts Push Brent Below $60

War has brought OPEC’s oil output to its lowest point since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The group’s total production dropped to 21.57 million barrels per day in March. That’s a plunge of 7.3 million barrels per day. It’s the lowest output since June 2020, when the pandemic crushed global demand.

The cuts are being driven by war. The conflict forced the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. That choked supply chains across the region. The Aramco CEO described it as a major energy crisis for the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed — and the Aramco CEO calls it the region’s worst energy crisis ever.

The country-level cuts are steep. Iraq’s output fell from 4.15 million to just 1.4 million barrels daily. Kuwait was among the countries making significant cuts, dropping sharply from its prior output levels. The UAE reportedly cut from 3.56 million to around 2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia also cut by an estimated 2 million barrels daily.

Venezuela and Nigeria were the only OPEC members that actually increased production. Reuters survey data, drawn from flow tracking firms like LSEG and Kpler alongside oil company and consultant sources, confirmed those two nations stood apart from the broader decline.

Oil prices have felt the impact. Brent crude has reportedly been pushed below $60 per barrel. That’s a roughly 4.14% drop over five days. However, Brent was still up approximately 77.37% year-to-date before the recent plunge, showing how dramatic the earlier price surge had been. WTI crude has similarly faced downward pressure, with traders reacting to energy truce negotiations between Russia and Ukraine adding further uncertainty to global supply outlooks.

Some economists are sounding alarms. Oxford Economics has warned the energy shock could damage global economic activity. Standard Chartered has flagged possible gas price spikes in Europe. A global recession is reportedly now being predicted for mid-year. Shortages of diesel, jet fuel, and shipping fuel are also a growing concern.

The situation echoes 2020, but it’s not identical. Back then, Russia rejected OPEC cuts in March 2020. Saudi Arabia launched a price war days later. Demand fell by up to 35 million barrels per day. Oil prices even went negative on April 20, 2020. Brent had already fallen to a 17-year low of $24.72 per barrel just weeks before that historic collapse.

OPEC+ eventually agreed to a 10 million barrel-per-day cut to stabilize things.

This time, war is the driver. Recovery’s expected to take significant time, and the full economic impact’s still unfolding.

✅ Claims in this article were verified using AI-assisted fact-checking.