Global Oil Markets Reel As Israeli Strikes Target Iran’s Energy Lifeline

The oil market‘s having a moment, and it’s not the good kind. Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have traders sweating bullets while OPEC scrambles to figure out what the hell to do next. Welcome to 2025’s oil circus, folks.

Global supply’s set to jump by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, hitting 104.6 mb/d. That’s a lot of crude. But here’s the twist – demand isn’t keeping up. Growth is slowing from 990 kb/d in the first quarter to just 650 kb/d for the rest of 2025. OPEC thinks we’ll see 1.3 mb/d growth in consumption, while the IEA’s being more pessimistic at just 0.7 mb/d. JP Morgan? They’re splitting the difference at 800 kb/d. Nobody can agree on anything these days.

OPEC’s trying to enforce quotas by pumping an extra 411,000 barrels daily starting June. The UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Kuwait are all boosting capacity like it’s going out of style. Meanwhile, America’s oil party might be winding down – production‘s expected to hover around 13.4 million b/d before dipping in 2026. US shale drillers need at least $65/bbl to break even on new wells, which explains the slowdown.

The price outlook? Brutal. JP Morgan’s calling for Brent at $66 this year and a measly $58 in 2026. That’s what happens when supply floods the market while demand goes limp.

Speaking of demand, it’s all about the developing world now. Non-OECD countries are carrying the torch while rich nations are actually cutting back by 120,000 barrels daily. The West’s oil addiction might finally be easing up. Maybe.

The forecast wars are getting ridiculous. OPEC and IEA can’t even agree on non-OPEC supply growth – they’re off by more than 400,000 barrels per day. That’s not a rounding error; that’s a fundamental disagreement about where this market’s headed.

Geopolitical chaos isn’t helping. Every time someone hits energy infrastructure in the Middle East, markets go haywire. But OPEC’s production increases are actually bearish – they’re more worried about losing market share than propping up prices.

Bottom line: Supply’s rising, demand’s questionable, prices are tanking, and everyone’s pointing fingers. The oil market’s having its worst identity crisis since shale broke OPEC’s monopoly. Buckle up.