Ethanol Production Cools As Americans Hit The Road For Summer Adventures

While ethanol production hit its stride last November, the industry’s been pumping the brakes ever since. April 2025 saw production average around 1.02 million barrels per day, down from January’s 1.08 million. The EIA expects things to slide further to 1.05 million by June.

This cooldown isn’t exactly shocking. Ethanol production tends to take a breather in late spring and early summer. It’s almost clockwork at this point. Americans are filling up their tanks for road trips, but that doesn’t mean production ramps up. Instead, companies draw down their stockpiles. Why make more when you can just use what’s sitting around?

The numbers tell a pretty clear story. Back in 2024, monthly production bounced between 30 and 34 million barrels. The year before? Usually 27 to 33 million. Now we’re watching a modest downward trend through spring 2025. Not exactly thrilling stuff, but it beats the pandemic years when everything went haywire. The latest EIA data shows weekly production increased by 2% for the week ending May 23, even as stocks dropped 3%.

Here’s the thing about summer driving season: everyone assumes it means more ethanol production. Wrong. Higher gasoline demand means more ethanol blending, sure, but producers often flatten their output and let inventories handle the surge. Seasonal maintenance doesn’t help either. Neither does planting season, which ties up corn supplies and facility operations.

The bigger picture remains stable, though. The U.S. still dominates global ethanol production and consumption. Capacity stays robust despite monthly wobbles. Government biofuel mandates and export demand keep the floor from falling out completely. Corn prices matter too, obviously. When corn gets expensive, ethanol plants feel the squeeze.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts paint a boring picture. They’re calling for 1.05 million barrels per day through both 2025 and 2026. The projections extend through September 2025, giving the market a clear view of expected production levels. Monthly production should bottom out mid-2025 before leveling off. Export forecasts got trimmed for 2025, which isn’t great news.

History suggests production will bounce back after summer ends. It usually does. The long-term trend still points upward, thanks to massive biofuel investments over the past decade. For now, though, ethanol’s taking a summer siesta while Americans burn through existing supplies on their vacation adventures.