Three key factors sent European gas prices tumbling below the €30/MWh mark last week, reaching lows not seen since mid-2024. Dutch TTF prices settled at €29.27/MWh by November 27, 2025, crashing 37% compared to last year. Pretty dramatic stuff. The market’s been sliding for weeks now, down 7.5% in just the past month. Nobody saw this coming.
Turns out, Europe’s gas tanks are practically overflowing. LNG tankers keep showing up at terminals like it’s some kind of maritime convention. Weather forecasters are predicting a winter so mild you might not even need that extra sweater. The market’s basically yawning at what used to be panic-inducing supply concerns.
But here’s the kicker—diplomacy. The whole Ukraine situation is suddenly looking less like a disaster movie and more like a tense board meeting. On November 23, EU countries tossed out their counter-proposal to the U.S. Ukraine peace plan. Literally the next day, prices dropped below €30. Coincidence? Yeah, right.
Traders aren’t stupid. They can smell changing winds faster than meteorologists. Peace talks mean potentially fewer sanctions, more stable gas flows, and way less reason to charge premium prices based on fear. Risk premia are evaporating faster than spilled coffee on a hot stove. This milestone represents the thinner risk premia that analysts have been predicting for months. The historical context is particularly striking when compared to the 345 EUR/MWh peak seen during the March 2022 crisis.
For industrial users and utilities, this price crash is like finding money in last year’s winter coat. But don’t expect your home heating bill to plummet overnight. Those savings have to wade through a swamp of contracts, hedges, and taxes before reaching your wallet.
The whole situation’s a perfect storm of good news—if you’re a buyer, that is. Sellers? Not so much. This market shift mirrors the broader global energy transition where renewable sources now generate nearly 30% of global electricity, offering more diverse energy options. Even with prices at 18-month lows, traders remain jumpy about potential winter surprises. One cold snap could send everyone scrambling again.
For now, though, the market’s practically throwing a party. Cheap gas, diplomatic progress, and full storage tanks. Who’d have thought 2025 would end on such a boringly positive note?
References
- https://bafnews.com/november-2025-ttf-below-30-eur-mwh/
- https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
- https://www.energyintel.com/0000019a-c0aa-d9d2-a1be-d2ffc5c60001
- https://www.marketscreener.com/news/european-natural-gas-prices-hit-new-yearly-low-amid-relaxed-supply-situation-commerzbank-says-ce7d5ed2d181f624
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price
