Most climate observers are watching China with bated breath as the world’s largest emitter sends mixed signals about its green ambitions. The country’s greenhouse gas emissions have recently stabilized around 15.1-15.2 GtCO2e, with early signs of a possible peak as soon as 2025. That’s earlier than their official target. Progress? Maybe.
The numbers tell a confusing story. Total emissions dropped 1.6% in early 2025, with power sector emissions falling a surprising 5.8% despite electricity demand growing. Renewables are booming—accounting for nearly 40% of power generation—while thermal power from coal and gas shrank by 4.7%. China has already blown past its 2030 targets for wind, solar capacity, and forest stock. Not too shabby.
China’s renewables surge while coal retreats—a statistical contradiction painting the portrait of a nation playing both sides of the climate crisis.
But here’s where it gets weird. Despite all this green progress, China keeps approving new coal plants. Big ones. The country remains among the top fossil fuel hoarders globally and shows no signs of quitting its coal addiction cold turkey. It’s like going on a diet while building an extension onto your candy shop. The nation’s ambitious carbon neutrality goal by 2060 stands in stark contrast to its continued reliance on coal for 70% of electricity generation.
The government’s “two sessions” meetings in 2025 emphasized balancing acts: cutting carbon while growing the economy, greening industry while ensuring energy security. They’re expanding carbon markets and zero-carbon industrial parks while simultaneously securing fossil fuel supply chains. Talk about having your coal and burning it too. Clean energy sectors now contribute over 10% of GDP, driving significant economic growth through technologies like electric vehicles, batteries, and solar power.
China’s 2035 NDC commits to reducing emissions by a modest 7–10% from their peak. Not exactly ambitious, but at least it’s something. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will be vital—current policies might miss CO2 intensity reduction targets without stronger interventions.
The reality? China’s leading the world in renewable deployment while continuing to bet on fossil fuels as backup. The release of China’s First Biennial Transparency Report in January 2025 offers clearer insights into the country’s emissions profile across five major sectors. It’s a high-stakes hedge that has climate experts scratching their heads. Green shift or greenwashing? The answer is frustratingly, typically Chinese: both.
References
- https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/
- https://www.climatescorecard.org/2025/08/china-2025-mid-year-emissions-report-card/
- https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-does-chinas-two-sessions-mean-for-climate-policy-in-2025/
- https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/042425-china-can-meet-most-2025-climate-targets-except-carbon-intensity-goal-report
- https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/clean-energy-china-emissions-peak/
- https://ccpi.org/country/chn/
- https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/new-international-order-forming-will-china-make-it-green
- https://climatecooperation.cn/climate/china-releases-2025-report-on-product-carbon-footprint-management/
