Market Power Play: OPEC+ Expands Oil Production For Third Straight Month

OPEC+ cranked open the oil spigots again, announcing a 411,000 barrels per day production boost for July 2025. That’s the third month in a row these oil ministers have decided flooding the market beats hoarding barrels. Eight countries signed off on this during their virtual meeting on May 31st, continuing their plan to release 2.2 million barrels per day that they’d been sitting on since April.

The usual suspects are pumping away. Saudi Arabia‘s churning out 9,367 thousand barrels daily, while Russia‘s not far behind at 9,161. Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman round out the gang. They’re all supposedly sticking to their quotas and promising to make nice if they pump too much. Sure they will.

This whole strategy flip has hammered oil prices. Crude briefly dipped below $60 a barrel in April after OPEC+ announced they’d start opening the taps. Brent’s limping along around $64 in London now. That’s a four-year low, folks. Great news if you’re filling up your tank. Not so great if you’re Saudi Arabia trying to fund another mega-city in the desert.

Russia apparently wanted to pump the brakes on these increases but got shot down. Can’t blame them for trying. President Trump’s trade war isn’t exactly helping demand, and here’s OPEC+ acting like everything’s peachy. They’re citing “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals.” Translation: we’re crossing our fingers and hoping for the best. Analyst Jorge Leon called the July increase a warning shot to signal the cartel means business about flooding the market. The rapid approval of LNG export terminals under the Trump administration could further complicate global energy dynamics as America aims to increase its influence in energy markets.

The group’s keeping their options open, at least. They can pause or reverse these increases if things go south. Monthly meetings will let them tweak production levels, with the next pow-wow scheduled for July 6th to figure out August’s numbers. The grand plan stretches to September 2026, gradually unwinding all those cuts they made when prices were in the toilet.

OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will supposedly keep everyone honest about production levels and compensation for past cheating. Because nothing says market stability like a committee watching other committees. The kingdom might also be punishing members who exceeded their quota violations in previous months.

Meanwhile, oil exporters watch their revenues shrink while consumers catch a break. Sometimes the house doesn’t always win.