Behind China’s 2025 climate promises lies a tangled web of power struggles. The “Two Sessions” reveals how Beijing juggles impossible contradictions – aiming for carbon neutrality while remaining the world’s largest coal consumer. They’ve hit some renewable targets early, yet emissions reached record highs in 2023. With government funding covering merely 15% of needed climate investment, officials face brutal choices between economic growth and environmental commitments. The real strategy? Not what they’re saying publicly.
While China’s ambitious climate plans look impressive on paper, the reality is far more complicated. Sure, they’ve got targets—carbon neutrality by 2060, emissions peak before 2030, and a whopping 200 GW of new energy capacity by 2025. They even reached their 1,200 GW solar and wind capacity goal six years early. Impressive, right? Well, sort of.
The truth is, China remains the world’s largest coal consumer and CO2 emitter. Nearly half their coal plants are operating at a loss, yet they keep building them. Talk about mixed signals. Their 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) claims to “strictly control” coal usage, but emissions hit an all-time high in 2023 after their zero-COVID policy ended. Not exactly progress.
Then there’s the money problem. China needs between $320 billion and $1 trillion annually to meet their climate goals. The government can only provide 15% of that. Good luck with the rest!
Their “1+N” policy system sounds fancy, coordinated through a National Leading Group for Climate Change. But implementation? That’s another story entirely. They’re still trying to figure out how to move from controlling energy consumption to controlling carbon emissions. Not exactly a simple shift.
Internationally, China’s playing a careful game. They updated their NDC in 2021, disclosed a methane control plan in 2023, and made nice with the US on climate cooperation. Still, Climate Action Tracker rated their Paris Agreement contributions as “highly insufficient.” Ouch.
The real test comes in 2025. They need a 4-6% emissions reduction to meet their carbon intensity targets. With their current fossil fuel addiction, that’s looking doubtful. Analysts suggest China needs to commit to a 30% reduction in emissions by 2035 to meaningfully contribute to global warming limits. They’re trying to balance energy security with renewable change, economic growth with decarbonization. Many of China’s renewable projects face significant reliability issues due to intermittent generation and inadequate storage capabilities. During the Two Sessions meetings, the NDRC officially attributed the shortfall in carbon intensity reduction to post-Covid recovery and extreme weather events.
Everyone’s watching to see if emissions will actually peak in 2023-2024 as some predict. Will they pull it off? Don’t hold your breath.
